BangladeshversusSri Lanka

13 Sept 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 6 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs139/5 Sri Lanka14.4 overs140/4 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

65%Bangladesh35%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,633 vs 1,533 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 61%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 62% during the match (Sri Lanka: 38% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: N Thushara to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Sri Lanka up from 42% to 53%.
1.4: PVD Chameera to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Sri Lanka up from 56% to 67%.
9.5: PWH de Silva to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Sri Lanka up from 70% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh139/5 Sri Lanka140/4

Innings 1

Bangladesh

139/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tanzid Hasanbowled · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nuwan Thushara	0	6	0	0	0.00
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Kusal Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dushmantha Chameera	0	4	0	0	0.00
Litton Dascaught · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga	28	26	4	0	107.69
Tawhid Hridoyrun out · Kamil Mishara · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Kamil Mishara	8	9	0	0	88.89

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nuwan Thushara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	1	4.25	0
Dushmantha Chameera1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	17	1	4.25	1
Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	27	0	9.00	0
Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	42	0	10.50	5
Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	0
Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/1
2	0	0/2
3	4	4/2
4	3	7/2
5	9	16/3
6	14	30/3
7	6	36/3
8	7	43/4
9	7	50/4
10	4	54/5
11	6	60/5
12	7	67/5
13	9	76/5
14	8	84/5
15	9	93/5
16	7	100/5
17	6	106/5
18	7	113/5
19	18	131/5
20	8	139/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.