PakistanversusSri Lanka

3 Oct 2024 · T20

Sharjah Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 31 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs116/10 Sri Lanka20.0 overs85/9 Sharjah Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

21%Pakistan79%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Pakistan (1,701 vs 1,456 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 6 and Sri Lanka won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 20%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 11% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.5: Umaima Sohail to GWHM Perera, GWHM Perera out. Pakistan up from 37% to 50%.
2nd inns 10.5: Nashra Sandhu to WK Dilhari, WK Dilhari out. Pakistan up from 51% to 66%.
2nd inns 12.4: Nashra Sandhu to RMVD Gunaratne, RMVD Gunaratne out. Pakistan up from 73% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan116/10 Sri Lanka85/9

Innings 1

Pakistan

116/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Muneeba Alicaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Sugandika Kumari	11	14	0	1	78.57
Gull Ferozacaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Sugandika Kumari 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Sugandika Kumari	2	4	0	0	50.00
Sidra Ameencaught and bowled · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Chamari Atapattu	12	10	1	0	120.00
Umaima Sohailcaught · Hasini Perera · Kavisha Dilhari 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Hasini Perera · b Kavisha Dilhari	18	19	1	0	94.74
Nida Darbowled · Udeshika Prabodhani 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Udeshika Prabodhani	23	22	0	1	104.55

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	1
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	1
Inoshi Priyadharshani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	0	8.00	0
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	3	4.50	0
Sachini Nisansala0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	0	6.75	3
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	16	1	8.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	2	6/1
3	8	14/1
4	5	19/2
5	10	29/2
6	3	32/3
7	6	38/3
8	7	45/3
9	2	47/3
10	10	57/4
11	7	64/4
12	6	70/4
13	3	73/5
14	3	76/7
15	8	84/8
16	5	89/8
17	8	97/8
18	4	101/8
19	10	111/8
20	5	116/10

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