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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
31 Oct 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 62%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max O'Dowdlbw · Aayan Afzal Khan 10 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 106 | 119 | 10 | 3 | 89.08 |
| C de Lange (2)bowled · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Rohid | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Noah Croesbowled · Aayan Afzal Khan 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 16 | 44 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Scott Edwardsnot out 8 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 94* | 95 | 8 | 1 | 98.95 |
 Bas de Leedelbw · Aayan Afzal Khan0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 1% to 78% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 22% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Colin Ackermannnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 34* | 40 | 2 | 0 | 85.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Arfan0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 8.57 | 6 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 1 | 0 |
| Khuzaima Tanveer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 6.33 | 3 | 0 |
| Awais Ali Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (C de Lange (2), 1.1) · 2-76 (Noah Croes, 15.3) · 3-182 (Max O'Dowd, 37.4) · 4-182 (Bas de Leede, 37.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 16 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 29/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 41/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 54/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 58/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 65/1 |
| 15 | 9 | 74/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 76/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 79/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 19 | 2 | 84/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 86/2 |
| 21 | 5 | 91/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 102/2 |
| 24 | 8 | 110/2 |
| 25 | 4 | 114/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 119/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 128/2 |
| 28 | 2 | 130/2 |
| 29 | 4 | 134/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 137/2 |
| 31 | 7 | 144/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 148/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 156/2 |
| 34 | 2 | 158/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 162/2 |
| 36 | 7 | 169/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 175/2 |
| 38 | 8 | 183/4 |
| 39 | 1 | 184/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 190/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 194/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 196/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 200/4 |
| 44 | 5 | 205/4 |
| 45 | 7 | 212/4 |
| 46 | 7 | 219/4 |
| 47 | 11 | 230/4 |
| 48 | 9 | 239/4 |
| 49 | 15 | 254/4 |
| 50 | 9 | 263/4 |
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
