AustraliaversusNew Zealand

23 Feb 2024 · T20

Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 72 runs

Australia19.5 overs174/10 New Zealand17.0 overs102/9 Eden Park, Auckland ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Australia51%New Zealand

Why

New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and New Zealand won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,624 vs 1,617 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 46%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 55%).

Biggest swings

10.1: LH Ferguson to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. New Zealand up from 29% to 43%.
2nd inns 0.6: JR Hazlewood to FH Allen, FH Allen out. Australia up from 48% to 60%.
2nd inns 3.1: PJ Cummins to WA Young, WA Young out. Australia up from 63% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia174/10 New Zealand102/9

Innings 1

Australia

174/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Travis Headbowled · Ben Sears 2 fours · 5 sixes	bowled · b Ben Sears	45	22	2	5	204.55
Steve Smithlbw · Lockie Ferguson 1 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b Lockie Ferguson	11	7	1	1	157.14
Mitchell Marshcaught · Trent Boult · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Trent Boult · b Mitchell Santner	26	21	1	2	123.81
Glenn Maxwellcaught · Trent Boult · Ben Sears0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Trent Boult0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	0	12.25	6	0
Adam Milne0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	2	1
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	12	4	3.13	0	0
Ben Sears0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	2	7.25	0	0
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	5	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	20	20/0
2	12	32/0
3	2	34/1
4	18	52/1
5	6	58/1
6	16	74/1
7	11	85/2
8	18	103/2
9	5	108/3
10	7	115/4
11	2	117/5
12	6	123/6
13	10	133/6
14	5	138/6
15	2	140/7
16	4	144/7
17	7	151/7
18	12	163/7
19	8	171/8
20	3	174/10

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