IndiaversusBangladesh

20 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

India won by 114 runs

India20.0 overs195/4 Bangladesh15.4 overs81/10 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

82%India18%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,738 vs 1,591 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 81%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 81% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 19%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Marufa Akter to S Mandhana, four by S Mandhana. India up from 81% to 83%.
1.1: Sanjida Akter Meghla to Shafali Verma, four by Shafali Verma. India up from 83% to 85%.
1.5: Sanjida Akter Meghla to Shafali Verma, six by Shafali Verma. India up from 85% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India195/4 Bangladesh81/10

Innings 1

India

195/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanacaught · Sobhana Mostary · Nahida Akter 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Sobhana Mostary · b Nahida Akter	37	19	5	2	194.74
Shafali Vermanot out 3 fours · 9 sixes	not out	100*	49	3	9	204.08
G Kamalinicaught · Rabeya Khan · Sanjida Akter Meghla 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Rabeya Khan · b Sanjida Akter Meghla	3	10	0	0	30.00
Harmanpreet Kaurstumped · Nigar Sultana · Rabeya Khan 6 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Nigar Sultana · b Rabeya Khan	40	33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marufa Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	0
Sanjida Akter Meghla0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	3
Sultana Khatun0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	1
Rabeya Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	1	8.75	0
Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	48	1	12.00	0
Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	19	0	9.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	13	19/0
3	11	30/0
4	15	45/0
5	16	61/0
6	11	72/1
7	3	75/1
8	10	85/1
9	1	86/2
10	11	97/2
11	4	101/2
12	10	111/2
13	8	119/2
14	9	128/2
15	22	150/2
16	9	159/2
17	16	175/2
18	6	181/3
19	4	185/4
20	10	195/4

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