Lucknow Super GiantsversusRoyal Challengers Bengaluru

2 Apr 2024 · T20

M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lucknow Super Giants won by 28 runs

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs181/5 Royal Challengers Bengaluru19.4 overs153/10 M Chinnaswamy Stadium, Bengaluru ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 51%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Royal Challengers Bengaluru is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Royal Challengers Bengaluru: 0% to 61%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: M Siddharth to V Kohli, V Kohli out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 39% to 53%.
2nd inns 5.1: MP Yadav to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 56% to 69%.
2nd inns 5.4: MP Yadav to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 70% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants181/5 Royal Challengers Bengaluru153/10

Innings 1