EnglandversusAustralia

5 Jul 2026 · T20

Lord's · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 7 wickets

England20.0 overs150/4 Australia17.1 overs153/3 Lord's ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%England50%Australia

Why

England are playing at home in the United Kingdom
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and England won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than England (1,815 vs 1,803 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 46%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 51% during the match (Australia: 49% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: LK Hamilton to AE Jones, AE Jones out. Australia up from 51% to 61%.
4.5: A Sutherland to DN Wyatt, DN Wyatt out. Australia up from 53% to 61%.
2nd inns 1.5: LK Bell to G Voll, G Voll out. England up from 37% to 47%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England150/4 Australia153/3

Innings 1

England

150/420.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Amy Jonescaught · Georgia Voll · Lucy Hamilton 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Georgia Voll · b Lucy Hamilton	6	6	1	0	100.00
Danielle Wyattcaught · Beth Mooney · Annabel Sutherland 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Beth Mooney · b Annabel Sutherland	8	9	1	0	88.89
Nat Sciver-Bruntnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes	not out	58*	53	5	0	109.43
Alice Capseybowled · Sophie Molineux2 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Kim Garth0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	1	0
Lucy Hamilton0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	19	1	6.33	0	1
Sophie Molineux0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	0	0
Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	1	1
Georgia Wareham0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	1	0
Ashleigh Gardner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	4	11/1
3	3	14/1
4	6	20/1
5	13	33/2
6	6	39/2
7	4	43/2
8	5	48/2
9	16	64/2
10	4	68/3
11	2	70/4
12	6	76/4
13	9	85/4
14	8	93/4
15	12	105/4
16	9	114/4
17	8	122/4
18	9	131/4
19	6	137/4
20	13	150/4

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.