Adelaide StrikersversusPerth Scorchers

31 Dec 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Perth Scorchers won by 7 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs142/8 Perth Scorchers14.3 overs146/3 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 45%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Perth Scorchers is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Perth Scorchers: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: LR Morris to OJ Pope, OJ Pope out. Perth Scorchers up from 47% to 58%.
3.1: JP Behrendorff to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Perth Scorchers up from 61% to 72%.
2nd inns 1.6: HTRY Thornton to AM Hardie, AM Hardie out. Adelaide Strikers up from 36% to 48%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers142/8 Perth Scorchers146/3

Innings 1