EnglandversusWest Indies

15 Oct 2024 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 6 wickets

England20.0 overs141/7 West Indies18.0 overs144/4 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

87%England13%West Indies

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than West Indies (1,794 vs 1,609 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 10 and West Indies won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 85%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · West Indies is the rest

England's chances ranged from 0% to 92% during the match (West Indies: 9% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.6: CE Dean to HK Matthews, four by HK Matthews. West Indies up from 56% to 66%.
2nd inns 15.4: CE Dean to DJS Dottin, six by DJS Dottin. West Indies up from 81% to 91%.
2nd inns 15.6: CE Dean to DJS Dottin, six by DJS Dottin. West Indies up from 90% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England141/7 West Indies144/4

Innings 1

England

141/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Maia Bouchiercaught · Qiana Joseph · Afy Fletcher 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Qiana Joseph · b Afy Fletcher	14	19	1	0	73.68
Danielle Wyattcaught · Deandra Dottin · Hayley Matthews 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Deandra Dottin · b Hayley Matthews	16	12	1	0	133.33
Alice Capseyrun out · Shemaine Campbelle, Deandra Dottin · Zaida James 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Shemaine Campbelle, Deandra Dottin	1	2	0	0	50.00
Nat Sciver-Bruntnot out 5 fours · 0 sixes	not out	57*

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Chinelle Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	0	7.00	0
Zaida James0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00	1
Hayley Matthews0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0
Aaliyah Alleyne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	2
Afy Fletcher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	3	5.25	0
Deandra Dottin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	0
Ashmini Munisar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0
Karishma Ramharack0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	7	11/0
3	10	21/0
4	8	29/1
5	3	32/2
6	2	34/2
7	4	38/3
8	8	46/3
9	8	54/3
10	7	61/3
11	11	72/3
12	7	79/3
13	5	84/3
14	9	93/3
15	3	96/4
16	8	104/4
17	6	110/5
18	14	124/5
19	4	128/6
20	13	141/7

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