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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
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Sri Lanka Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2025 · Women
7 May 2025 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 60%; India batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratika Rawalcaught · Annerie Dercksen · Nadine de Klerk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Nadine de Klerk | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Smriti Mandhanacaught · Nadine de Klerk · Chloe Tryon6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nadine de Klerk · b Chloe Tryon | 51 | 63 | 6 | 0 | 80.95 |
| Harleen Deolbowled · Masabata Klaas 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Masabata Klaas | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Nondumiso Shangase · Annerie Dercksen6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nondumiso Shangase · b Annerie Dercksen | 28 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 140.00 |
India's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Suné Luus · b Masabata Klaas |
| 123 |
| 101 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 121.78 |
 Deepti Sharmacaught · Chloe Tryon · Nadine de Klerk10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Chloe Tryon · b Nadine de Klerk | 93 | 84 | 10 | 2 | 110.71 |
|---|
 Richa Ghoshcaught · Tazmin Brits · Nonkululeko Mlaba2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 20 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Amanjot Kaurcaught · Miané Smit · Nonkululeko Mlaba 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Miané Smit · b Nonkululeko Mlaba | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Shree Charanirun out · Chloe Tryon, Nadine de Klerk · Nadine de Klerk 0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Chloe Tryon, Nadine de Klerk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Sneh Rananot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Masabata Klaas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 51 | 2 | 6.38 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 2 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 71 | 2 | 8.88 | 0 | 1 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 7.17 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 46 | 1 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Miané Smit0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-9 (Pratika Rawal, 1.2) · 2-18 (Harleen Deol, 2.3) · 3-50 (Harmanpreet Kaur, 7.0) · 4-138 (Smriti Mandhana, 23.3) · 5-260 (Jemimah Rodrigues, 42.4) · 6-296 (Richa Ghosh, 46.4) · 7-314 (Amanjot Kaur, 48.4) · 8-336 (Deepti Sharma, 49.5) · 9-337 (Shree Charani, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 13/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 22/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 26/2 |
| 5 | 9 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 42/2 |
| 7 | 8 | 50/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 54/3 |
| 9 | 1 | 55/3 |
| 10 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 11 | 2 | 58/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 66/3 |
| 13 | 12 | 78/3 |
| 14 | 9 | 87/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 90/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 17 | 6 | 101/3 |
| 18 | 10 | 111/3 |
| 19 | 5 | 116/3 |
| 20 | 4 | 120/3 |
| 21 | 7 | 127/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 132/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 136/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 140/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 144/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 145/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 146/4 |
| 28 | 9 | 155/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 159/4 |
| 30 | 10 | 169/4 |
| 31 | 4 | 173/4 |
| 32 | 10 | 183/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 185/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 190/4 |
| 35 | 11 | 201/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 204/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 211/4 |
| 38 | 11 | 222/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 229/4 |
| 40 | 8 | 237/4 |
| 41 | 15 | 252/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 259/4 |
| 43 | 2 | 261/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 267/5 |
| 45 | 13 | 280/5 |
| 46 | 11 | 291/5 |
| 47 | 6 | 297/6 |
| 48 | 10 | 307/6 |
| 49 | 14 | 321/7 |
| 50 | 16 | 337/9 |
Deepti Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Richa Ghosh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jemimah Rodrigues: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Harmanpreet Kaur: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Smriti Mandhana: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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