OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Aravind Sivaraj
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Ireland vs South Africa · 2024/25 · Men
4 Oct 2024 · ODI
Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 82%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 18%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught and bowled · Curtis Campher3 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Curtis Campher | 40 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 102.56 |
 Temba Bavumaretired hurt · Curtis Campher4 fours · 1 sixes | retired hurt | 35* | 39 | 4 | 1 | 89.74 |
| HE van der Dussenbowled · Gavin Hoey 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gavin Hoey | 35 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 89.74 |
| Kyle Verreynnestumped · Stephen Doheny · Andrew McBrine 5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Stephen Doheny · b Andrew McBrine | 67 | 64 | 5 | 0 | 104.69 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 112* |
| 81 |
| 8 |
| 3 |
| 138.27 |
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Gavin Hoey · Craig Young3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gavin Hoey · b Craig Young | 43 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 126.47 |
|---|
| Andile Phehlukwayonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 79 | 0 | 7.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Graham Hume0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 64 | 0 | 7.11 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Young0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 79 | 1 | 7.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Curtis Campher0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew McBrine0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 4.30 | 1 | 0 |
| Gavin Hoey0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
 George Dockrell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-78 (Ryan Rickelton, 13.4) · 2-136 (HE van der Dussen, 23.4) · 3-239 (Kyle Verreynne, 38.1) · 4-331 (Wiaan Mulder, 48.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 21/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 33/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 4 | 42/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 44/0 |
| 10 | 17 | 61/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 12 | 4 | 68/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 72/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 78/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 82/1 |
| 16 | 12 | 94/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 99/1 |
| 18 | 2 | 101/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 108/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 117/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 122/1 |
| 22 | 8 | 130/1 |
| 23 | 3 | 133/1 |
| 24 | 4 | 137/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 142/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 149/2 |
| 27 | 5 | 154/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 162/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 167/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 177/2 |
| 31 | 2 | 179/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 188/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 193/2 |
| 34 | 9 | 202/2 |
| 35 | 11 | 213/2 |
| 36 | 9 | 222/2 |
| 37 | 8 | 230/2 |
| 38 | 9 | 239/2 |
| 39 | 2 | 241/3 |
| 40 | 5 | 246/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 250/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 256/3 |
| 43 | 9 | 265/3 |
| 44 | 8 | 273/3 |
| 45 | 9 | 282/3 |
| 46 | 18 | 300/3 |
| 47 | 7 | 307/3 |
| 48 | 16 | 323/3 |
| 49 | 14 | 337/4 |
| 50 | 6 | 343/4 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Temba Bavuma: Michael Sherman · CC BY 3.0
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew Balbirnie: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Andrew McBrine: AssociateAffiliate · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
.png){kind=link}
