ZimbabweversusPakistan

3 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 10 wickets

Zimbabwe12.4 overs57/10 Pakistan5.3 overs61/0 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

51%Zimbabwe49%Pakistan

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Pakistan won 8 and Zimbabwe won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Pakistan (1,572 vs 1,523 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 52%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Pakistan: 29% to 100%).

Biggest swings

6.2: Abbas Afridi to Sikandar Raza, Sikandar Raza out. Pakistan up from 55% to 65%.
7.4: Agha Salman to D Myers, D Myers out. Pakistan up from 65% to 74%.
8.4: Sufiyan Muqeem to RP Burl, RP Burl out. Pakistan up from 75% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe57/10 Pakistan61/0

Innings 1

Zimbabwe

57/1012.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Zimbabwe batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Brian Bennettcaught · Irfan Khan · Haris Rauf 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Irfan Khan · b Haris Rauf	21	14	3	1	150.00
Tadiwanashe Marumanicaught · Tayyab Tahir · Abbas Afridi 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tayyab Tahir · b Abbas Afridi	16	14	3	0	114.29
Dion Myerslbw · Salman Ali Agha 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Salman Ali Agha	3	11	0	0	27.27
Sikandar Razabowled · Abbas Afridi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Abbas Afridi	3	4	0	0	75.00
Ryan Burllbw · Sufyan Moqeem 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Sufyan Moqeem	1

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	1	7.00
Jahandad Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00
Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	13	1	6.50
Abbas Afridi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	2	2	1.00
Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	7	1	3.50
Sufyan Moqeem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	0	3	5	1.13

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	11	17/0
3	10	27/0
4	10	37/0
5	0	37/1
6	3	40/2
7	2	42/3
8	3	45/4
9	1	46/6
10	4	50/6
11	2	52/8
12	5	57/9
13	0	57/10

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