Comilla VictoriansversusChattogram Challengers

13 Feb 2024 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Comilla Victorians won by 73 runs

Comilla Victorians20.0 overs239/3 Chattogram Challengers16.3 overs166/10 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Comilla Victorians started on 57%; Comilla Victorians batted first.

Comilla Victorians’s chance of winning (%) · Chattogram Challengers is the rest

Comilla Victorians's chances ranged from 55% to 100% during the match (Chattogram Challengers: 0% to 45%).

Biggest swings

4.1: Al-Amin Hossain to WG Jacks, six by WG Jacks. Comilla Victorians up from 60% to 65%.
7.6: Shohidul Islam to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. Chattogram Challengers up from 16% to 20%.
2nd inns 7.3: Mustafizur Rahman to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Comilla Victorians up from 89% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Comilla Victorians239/3 Chattogram Challengers166/10

Innings 1