EnglandversusPakistan

17 May 2024 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 65 runs

England20.0 overs144/6 Pakistan15.5 overs79/10 County Ground, Northampton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

93%England7%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, England rate stronger than Pakistan (1,721 vs 1,444 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, England won 10 and Pakistan won 0
England are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

England started on 93%; England batted first.

England’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

England's chances ranged from 86% to 100% during the match (Pakistan: 0% to 14%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.1: LK Bell to Gull Feroza, Gull Feroza out. England up from 88% to 92%.
2nd inns 5.2: S Ecclestone to Muneeba Ali, Muneeba Ali out. England up from 87% to 93%.
2nd inns 8.5: S Glenn to Sidra Ameen, Sidra Ameen out. England up from 92% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

England144/6 Pakistan79/10

Innings 1

England

144/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

England batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Maia Bouchierrun out · Muneeba Ali, Diana Baig · Nashra Sandhu 5 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Muneeba Ali, Diana Baig	30	26	5	0	115.38
Danielle Wyattbowled · Waheeda Akhtar 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Waheeda Akhtar	6	6	1	0	100.00
Alice Capseycaught · Muneeba Ali · Nida Dar 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Muneeba Ali · b Nida Dar	31	33	5	0	93.94
Nat Sciver-Bruntcaught · Fatima Sana · Sadia Iqbal 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Fatima Sana · b Sadia Iqbal	31

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Waheeda Akhtar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	1	10.33
Diana Baig0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00
Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	0	5.00
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	24	0	8.00
Nida Dar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	2	8.25

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	7	17/0
3	1	18/1
4	5	23/1
5	20	43/1
6	5	48/1
7	3	51/1
8	7	58/1
9	4	62/1
10	4	66/1
11	7	73/2
12	4	77/3
13	7	84/3
14	6	90/3
15	13	103/3
16	3	106/4
17	8	114/5
18	6	120/5
19	7	127/5
20	17	144/6

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