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Canada tour of United States of America · 2024 · Men
12 Apr 2024 · T20
Recorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 63%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Canada: 0% to 63%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorcaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 39 | 24 | 5 | 2 | 162.50 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Dilpreet Bajwa · Uday Bhagwan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dilpreet Bajwa · b Uday Bhagwan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · Shreyas Movva · Dillon Heyliger 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Dillon Heyliger | 15 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 107.14 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Shreyas Movva · Saad Bin Zafar 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shreyas Movva · b Saad Bin Zafar | 16 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Corey Andersoncaught · Nicholas Kirton · Harsh Thaker 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicholas Kirton · b Harsh Thaker | 28 |
| 29 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 96.55 |
| Jasdeep Singhlbw · Harsh Thaker 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Harsh Thaker | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Shadley van Schalkwyknot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 15* | 10 | 0 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhnot out 3 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 34* | 17 | 3 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RR Joshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 11.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Uday Bhagwan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 13.00 | 5 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Nikhil Dutta0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-16 (Monank Patel, 1.2) · 2-64 (Steven Taylor, 6.3) · 3-65 (Aaron Jones, 7.0) · 4-96 (Milind Kumar, 12.5) · 5-110 (Jasdeep Singh, 15.2) · 6-111 (Corey Anderson, 15.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 19/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 4 | 17 | 48/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 57/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 63/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 65/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 69/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 74/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 87/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 93/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 96/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 100/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 109/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 112/6 |
| 17 | 6 | 118/6 |
| 18 | 19 | 137/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 148/6 |
| 20 | 11 | 159/6 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
