OneTipOneHand
Bringing the game to you…
Loading your next view.
THE WORLD OF CRICKET. CONNECTED. One game. A global community.
OneTipOneHand
Loading your next view.
Spot an error, a missing record or a photograph that needs attention?
Photo: Alexander T. Carroll, cropped by Blackcat
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
England tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
1 Nov 2025 · ODI
Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 23%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Tom Latham · Zakary Foulkes1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Zakary Foulkes | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Rachin Ravindra · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Rachin Ravindra · b Jacob Duffy | 8 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 66.67 |
 Joe Rootlbw · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Zakary Foulkes | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Michael Bracewell · Jacob Duffy1 fours · 0 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 1% to 36% during the match (New Zealand: 64% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Michael Bracewell · b Jacob Duffy |
| 6 |
| 11 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 54.55 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Jacob Duffy 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Jacob Duffy | 11 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 68.75 |
|---|
 Jos Buttlerbowled · Blair Tickner7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Blair Tickner | 38 | 56 | 7 | 0 | 67.86 |
|---|
 Sam Curranbowled · Blair Tickner3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Blair Tickner | 17 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 58.62 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Will Young · Mitchell Santner10 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Will Young · b Mitchell Santner | 68 | 62 | 10 | 2 | 109.68 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Daryl Mitchell · Blair Tickner1 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Blair Tickner | 36 | 30 | 1 | 4 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Jofra Archercaught · Michael Bracewell · Blair Tickner2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Blair Tickner | 16 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 123.08 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 13 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 3 | 5.60 | 6 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 3.38 | 4 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 6.67 | 2 | 0 |
 Blair Tickner0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 64 | 4 | 6.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.2 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.37 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Jamie Smith, 1.4) · 2-15 (Joe Root, 3.1) · 3-17 (Ben Duckett, 4.2) · 4-31 (Harry Brook, 6.3) · 5-44 (Jacob Bethell, 10.1) · 6-97 (Sam Curran, 21.3) · 7-102 (Jos Buttler, 23.1) · 8-160 (Brydon Carse, 31.3) · 9-186 (Jofra Archer, 36.0) · 10-222 (Jamie Overton, 40.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 26/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/4 |
| 8 | 0 | 31/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 40/4 |
| 10 | 4 | 44/4 |
| 11 | 9 | 53/5 |
| 12 | 2 | 55/5 |
| 13 | 2 | 57/5 |
| 14 | 2 | 59/5 |
| 15 | 5 | 64/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 68/5 |
| 17 | 1 | 69/5 |
| 18 | 1 | 70/5 |
| 19 | 11 | 81/5 |
| 20 | 11 | 92/5 |
| 21 | 4 | 96/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 101/6 |
| 23 | 1 | 102/6 |
| 24 | 1 | 103/7 |
| 25 | 3 | 106/7 |
| 26 | 7 | 113/7 |
| 27 | 8 | 121/7 |
| 28 | 5 | 126/7 |
| 29 | 12 | 138/7 |
| 30 | 14 | 152/7 |
| 31 | 7 | 159/7 |
| 32 | 2 | 161/8 |
| 33 | 3 | 164/8 |
| 34 | 9 | 173/8 |
| 35 | 6 | 179/8 |
| 36 | 7 | 186/9 |
| 37 | 9 | 195/9 |
| 38 | 8 | 203/9 |
| 39 | 6 | 209/9 |
| 40 | 13 | 222/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 222/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
_(Archer_cropped).jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
_-_Sam_Curran_(cropped).jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
.jpg){kind=link}
