African Games · 2023/24 · Men

NamibiaversusNigeria

18 Mar 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Nigeria won by 3 wickets

Namibia20.0 overs121/7 Nigeria20.0 overs126/7 Achimota Senior Secondary School B Field, Accra ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

69%Namibia31%Nigeria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Nigeria (1,580 vs 1,479 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 1 and Nigeria won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 69%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 9% to 93% during the match (Nigeria: 7% to 91%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.4: SPS Shikongo to JO Adedeji, JO Adedeji out. Namibia up from 41% to 62%.
2nd inns 19.4: S Fouché to Mohameed Taiwo, four by Mohameed Taiwo. Nigeria up from 35% to 68%.
2nd inns 19.6: S Fouché to SA Okpe, six by SA Okpe. Nigeria up from 66% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia121/7 Nigeria126/7

Innings 1

Namibia

121/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Namibia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Malan Krugercaught · Isaac Danladi · P Useni 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Isaac Danladi · b P Useni	15	12	3	0	125.00
Niko Davincaught · Sylvester Okpe · Isaac Danladi 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sylvester Okpe · b Isaac Danladi	8	13	1	0	61.54
GJ van Rensburgbowled · Isaac Danladi 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Isaac Danladi	1	2	0	0	50.00
Jan Nicol Loftie-Eatoncaught · Mohameed Taiwo · R Abdulkareem 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mohameed Taiwo · b R Abdulkareem	27	26	1	1	103.85
Shaun Fouchéstumped · Sulaimon Runsewe · Joshua Asia 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
C Udekwe0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	3	1
Mohameed Taiwo0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	1	0
Isaac Danladi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	10	2	2.50	0	0
P Useni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	4	1	4.00	0	0
Joshua Asia0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0	1
R Abdulkareem0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	33	1	8.25	2	0
Sylvester Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0
Isaac Okpe0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	13	1	13.00	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	8	14/0
3	5	19/0
4	2	21/1
5	4	25/2
6	2	27/3
7	3	30/4
8	2	32/4
9	3	35/4
10	5	40/4
11	5	45/4
12	11	56/4
13	11	67/4
14	9	76/5
15	4	80/5
16	4	84/5
17	7	91/5
18	12	103/5
19	3	106/6
20	15	121/7

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.