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Netherlands Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
9 Aug 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Papua New Guinea started on 35%; Papua New Guinea batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoani Varebowled · Silver Siegers 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Silver Siegers | 21 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 38.18 |
| Vicky Araabowled · Hannah Landheer 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hannah Landheer | 13 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 38.24 |
| Tanya Rumacaught and bowled · Annemijn van Beuge 10 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Annemijn van Beuge | 79 | 96 | 10 | 0 | 82.29 |
| Sibona Jimmycaught · Robine Rijke · Eva Lynch 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Robine Rijke · b Eva Lynch | 12 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Brenda Taubowled · Annemijn van Beuge 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Annemijn van Beuge | 12 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 63.16 |
Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 0% to 47% during the match (Netherlands: 53% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Annemijn van Beuge |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| K Frankcaught · P Molkenboer · Annemijn van Beuge 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · P Molkenboer · b Annemijn van Beuge | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| HJ Thomasrun out · Eva Lynch · Iris Zwilling 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Eva Lynch | 6 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Isabel Touastumped · Babette de Leede · Annemijn van Beuge 1 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Babette de Leede · b Annemijn van Beuge | 14 | 37 | 1 | 0 | 37.84 |
|---|
| Geua Tomcaught · Caroline de Lange · Eva Lynch 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Caroline de Lange · b Eva Lynch | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| D Lohianot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iris Zwilling1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 3.11 | 1 | 0 |
| Hannah Landheer1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 22 | 1 | 2.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 4.67 | 3 | 0 |
| Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Silver Siegers1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Eva Lynch1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Annemijn van Beuge0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 37 | 5 | 3.76 | 3 | 0 |
1-28 (Vicky Araa, 9.3) · 2-65 (Naoani Vare, 19.0) · 3-93 (Sibona Jimmy, 23.2) · 4-111 (Brenda Tau, 28.1) · 5-113 (Lakshmi Rajadurai, 29.0) · 6-115 (K Frank, 30.4) · 7-149 (HJ Thomas, 36.5) · 8-173 (Tanya Ruma, 42.3) · 9-177 (Geua Tom, 43.4) · 10-191 (Isabel Toua, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 19/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 21/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 26/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 44/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 51/1 |
| 15 | 8 | 59/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 62/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 65/1 |
| 19 | 0 | 65/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 69/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 73/2 |
| 22 | 7 | 80/2 |
| 23 | 13 | 93/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 93/3 |
| 25 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 100/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 111/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 113/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 114/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 116/6 |
| 32 | 9 | 125/6 |
| 33 | 5 | 130/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 134/6 |
| 35 | 8 | 142/6 |
| 36 | 5 | 147/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 149/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 153/7 |
| 39 | 1 | 154/7 |
| 40 | 3 | 157/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 162/7 |
| 42 | 7 | 169/7 |
| 43 | 6 | 175/8 |
| 44 | 3 | 178/9 |
| 45 | 2 | 180/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 181/9 |
| 47 | 5 | 186/9 |
| 48 | 3 | 189/9 |
| 49 | 2 | 191/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.