ArgentinaversusCayman Islands

8 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Cayman Islands won by 10 wickets

Argentina17.1 overs98/10 Cayman Islands9.0 overs102/0 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Cayman Islands more likely to win

41%Argentina59%Cayman Islands

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Cayman Islands won 2 and Argentina won 0
Cayman Islands are playing at home in the Cayman Islands
On results in T20 internationals so far, Argentina rate stronger than Cayman Islands (1,478 vs 1,446 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Argentina started on 39%; Argentina batted first.

Argentina’s chance of winning (%) · Cayman Islands is the rest

Argentina's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Cayman Islands: 41% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.3: ROC Dunka to A Ferguson, A Ferguson out. Cayman Islands up from 43% to 52%.
4.3: V Dhaniram to P Baron, P Baron out. Cayman Islands up from 52% to 60%.
5.3: A Wright to A Kirschbaum, A Kirschbaum out. Cayman Islands up from 60% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Argentina98/10 Cayman Islands102/0

Innings 1

Argentina

98/1017.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Argentina batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Baronbowled · V Dhaniram 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b V Dhaniram	20	15	3	0	133.33
Alejandro Fergusoncaught · J Baker · ROC Dunka 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · J Baker · b ROC Dunka	6	6	1	0	100.00
A Kirschbaumcaught · Alistair Ifill · A Wright 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alistair Ifill · b A Wright	7	8	1	0	87.50
R Escobarbowled · Conroy Wright 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Conroy Wright	18	25	0	0	72.00
T Rossicaught · ROC Dunka · Alistair Ifill 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · ROC Dunka · b Alistair Ifill	19

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
ROC Dunka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	1	4.50	0
Conroy Wright0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	29	4	9.16	1
A Wright0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	1	5.00	0
V Dhaniram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	1	5.75	0
Romario Edwards0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	6	0	3.00	1
Alistair Ifill0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	9	3	3.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	17	26/0
3	1	27/1
4	6	33/1
5	4	37/2
6	6	43/3
7	7	50/3
8	4	54/3
9	6	60/3
10	6	66/3
11	6	72/3
12	1	73/3
13	7	80/4
14	3	83/5
15	3	86/7
16	9	95/9
17	3	98/9
18	0	98/10

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