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Pakistan Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2026 · Women
25 Jul 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 47%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadaf Shamasrun out · Chamari Atapattu, Anushka Sanjeewani · Rashmika Sewwandi 2 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Chamari Atapattu, Anushka Sanjeewani | 12 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Gull Ferozacaught · Dewmi Vihanga · Chethana Vimukthi 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dewmi Vihanga · b Chethana Vimukthi | 27 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 81.82 |
| Sidra Ameennot out 13 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 100* | 120 | 13 | 0 | 83.33 |
| Ayesha Zafarbowled · Kavisha Dilhari 5 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 49 | 45 | 5 | 2 | 108.89 |
| Muneeba Alistumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · Inoka Ranaweera 4 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Inoka Ranaweera | 45 | 62 | 4 | 0 | 72.58 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 73% during the match (Sri Lanka: 27% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Rashmika Sewwandi · b Chamari Atapattu |
| 25 |
| 18 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 138.89 |
| Najiha Alvinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashmika Sewwandi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 6.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.56 | 2 | 0 |
| Dewmi Vihanga2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 51 | 0 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
| Chethana Vimukthi0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 4.33 | 2 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 60 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Sadaf Shamas, 4.4) · 2-55 (Gull Feroza, 11.2) · 3-133 (Ayesha Zafar, 26.1) · 4-221 (Muneeba Ali, 43.4) · 5-262 (Fatima Sana, 48.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 25/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 36/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 47/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 57/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 59/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 63/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 12 | 77/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 82/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 87/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 91/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 98/2 |
| 22 | 2 | 100/2 |
| 23 | 9 | 109/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 113/2 |
| 25 | 14 | 127/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 133/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 134/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 134/3 |
| 29 | 6 | 140/3 |
| 30 | 9 | 149/3 |
| 31 | 5 | 154/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 158/3 |
| 33 | 1 | 159/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 164/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 168/3 |
| 36 | 1 | 169/3 |
| 37 | 12 | 181/3 |
| 38 | 5 | 186/3 |
| 39 | 7 | 193/3 |
| 40 | 10 | 203/3 |
| 41 | 4 | 207/3 |
| 42 | 6 | 213/3 |
| 43 | 3 | 216/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 222/4 |
| 45 | 9 | 231/4 |
| 46 | 7 | 238/4 |
| 47 | 11 | 249/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 257/4 |
| 49 | 8 | 265/5 |
| 50 | 8 | 273/5 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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