Central DistrictsversusOtago

24 Jan 2026 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Otago won by 2 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs123/5 Otago19.3 overs126/8 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 46%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Otago: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.2: JB Ogden to IR James, IR James out. Central Districts up from 28% to 39%.
2nd inns 8.2: G Scrivens to PJ Watkins, PJ Watkins out. Central Districts up from 20% to 29%.
2nd inns 19.3: FDM Devonshire to ATP Todd, four by ATP Todd. Otago up from 88% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts123/5 Otago126/8

Innings 1