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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
10 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 45%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 0% to 71% during the match (Nepal: 30% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendel Kadowaki-Flemingcaught · Rohit Kumar · Gulsan Jha 5 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Rohit Kumar · b Gulsan Jha | 60 | 46 | 5 | 3 | 130.43 |
| Abhishek Anandrun out · Dipendra Singh Airee · Sompal Kami 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Dipendra Singh Airee | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
| Esam Rahmancaught · Sundeep Jora · Sompal Kami 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Sompal Kami | 31 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 124.00 |
| Ibrahim Takahashibowled · Gulsan Jha 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Gulsan Jha | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
| S Ravichandranbowled · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| caught · Sandeep Lamichhane · b Nandan Yadav |
| 17 |
| 12 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| 141.67 |
| D Suzukicaught · Sundeep Jora · Sandeep Lamichhane 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sundeep Jora · b Sandeep Lamichhane | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomasrun out · Aasif Sheikh, Rohit Kumar · Nandan Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Aasif Sheikh, Rohit Kumar | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Charlie Hara-Hinzenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| A Patmorenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Sompal Kami0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 3 | 0 |
| Nandan Yadav0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
 Sandeep Lamichhane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Lalit Rajbanshi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 13.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Gulsan Jha1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Kushal Bhurtel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-11 (Abhishek Anand, 3.2) · 2-97 (Esam Rahman, 12.5) · 3-99 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 13.3) · 4-102 (S Ravichandran, 14.3) · 5-104 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 15.1) · 6-109 (D Suzuki, 17.0) · 7-127 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 19.1) · 8-130 (B Ito-Davis, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 24/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 31/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 48/1 |
| 9 | 17 | 65/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 70/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 79/1 |
| 12 | 16 | 95/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 97/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 102/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 104/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 104/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 109/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 115/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 126/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 131/8 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sandeep Lamichhane: Deshsanchar · CC BY 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
