Abu Dhabi Knight RidersversusDubai Capitals

3 Feb 2024 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders won by 29 runs

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders20.0 overs183/10 Dubai Capitals20.0 overs154/8 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders started on 47%; Abu Dhabi Knight Riders batted first.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders’s chance of winning (%) · Dubai Capitals is the rest

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders's chances ranged from 31% to 100% during the match (Dubai Capitals: 0% to 69%).

Biggest swings

7.4: SC Kuggeleijn to A Sharafu, A Sharafu out. Dubai Capitals up from 52% to 63%.
11.2: Akif Raja to LJ Evans, LJ Evans out. Dubai Capitals up from 46% to 57%.
12.3: Sikandar Raza to Imad Wasim, Imad Wasim out. Dubai Capitals up from 49% to 60%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Abu Dhabi Knight Riders183/10 Dubai Capitals154/8

Innings 1