IndiaversusThailand

30 Aug 2026 · T20

Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 94 runs

India20.0 overs159/9 Thailand16.1 overs65/10 Dubai International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

46%India54%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than India (1,733 vs 1,629 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 3 and Thailand won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 43%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

India's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

17.2: C Sutthiruang to NSS Sharma, NSS Sharma out. Thailand up from 32% to 38%.
19.6: T Putthawong to K Goud, four by K Goud. India up from 72% to 81%.
2nd inns 0.5: K Goud to N Chantam, N Chantam out. India up from 80% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India159/9 Thailand65/10

Innings 1

India

159/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Smriti Mandhanarun out · Aphisara Suwanchonrathi · Phannita Maya 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Aphisara Suwanchonrathi	19	10	4	0	190.00
Shafali Vermacaught and bowled · Suleeporn Laomi 8 fours · 3 sixes	caught and bowled · b Suleeporn Laomi	64	36	8	3	177.78
Pratika Rawalbowled · Suleeporn Laomi 2 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Suleeporn Laomi	22	18	2	1	122.22
Harmanpreet Kaurcaught · Phannita Maya · T Putthawong 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Phannita Maya · b T Putthawong

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Phannita Maya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	0	10.33	0
T Putthawong0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	0
S Chaturongrattana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	2	10.33	2
Onnicha Kamchomphu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0
Suleeporn Laomi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0
Chanida Sutthiruang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	1	4.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	13	13/0
2	13	26/0
3	12	38/1
4	9	47/1
5	12	59/1
6	6	65/1
7	15	80/1
8	3	83/1
9	8	91/2
10	10	101/2
11	6	107/2
12	3	110/3
13	2	112/5
14	5	117/5
15	10	127/5
16	6	133/6
17	4	137/8
18	3	140/9
19	6	146/9
20	13	159/9

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