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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Asia Qualifier B · 2026/27 · Men
9 Oct 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
China started on 8%; China batted first.
China's chances ranged from 0% to 10% during the match (Hong Kong: 90% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Du Jianhaocaught · Reyansh Sharma · Ayush Shukla 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Reyansh Sharma · b Ayush Shukla | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Du Jianyaolbw · Mohammad Ghazanfar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mohammad Ghazanfar | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
| Yang Wangjielbw · Hassan Khan Mohammad 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Hassan Khan Mohammad | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
| Zong Yuechaocaught · Yasim Murtaza · Mohammad Ghazanfar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Yasim Murtaza · b Mohammad Ghazanfar | 15 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Tian Sen Qunlbw · Reyansh Sharma 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Reyansh Sharma | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| bowled · b Ehsan Khan |
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 14.29 |
| Ma Qianchenglbw · Aizaz Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aizaz Khan | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Chen Zhuo Yuecaught and bowled · Mohammad Ghazanfar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Mohammad Ghazanfar | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Deng Jinqibowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Liu Qingzenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Yao Juntingbowled · Ehsan Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ehsan Khan | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayush Shukla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassan Khan Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Ehsan Khan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Ghazanfar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 2.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Reyansh Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Du Jianhao, 1.0) · 2-10 (Yang Wangjie, 1.5) · 3-23 (Du Jianyao, 5.3) · 4-34 (Tian Sen Qun, 8.5) · 5-34 (Zong Yuechao, 9.2) · 6-37 (Ma Qiancheng, 10.4) · 7-37 (Shenjian Zheng, 11.3) · 8-37 (Deng Jinqi, 11.4) · 9-37 (Chen Zhuo Yue, 12.3) · 10-40 (Yao Junting, 13.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/2 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 19/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 22/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 7 | 2 | 27/3 |
| 8 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 34/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 36/5 |
| 11 | 1 | 37/6 |
| 12 | 0 | 37/8 |
| 13 | 3 | 40/9 |
| 14 | 0 | 40/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.