**Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui**
Photo: NZDF
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

Northern DistrictsversusAuckland

12 Jan 2024 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Auckland won by 8 wickets

Northern Districts19.0 overs121/10 Auckland16.3 overs127/2 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northern Districts started on 55%; Northern Districts batted first.

Northern Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Northern Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (Auckland: 44% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: LH Ferguson to HR Cooper, HR Cooper out. Auckland up from 47% to 59%.
2.3: BG Lister to SC Kuggeleijn, SC Kuggeleijn out. Auckland up from 60% to 71%.
6.1: L Delport to KD Clarke, KD Clarke out. Auckland up from 74% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northern Districts121/10 Auckland127/2

Innings 1