Sri LankaversusPakistan

4 Aug 2026 · T20

Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 4 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs113/6 Pakistan18.2 overs115/6 Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

82%Sri Lanka18%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Pakistan (1,667 vs 1,452 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 79%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 86% during the match (Pakistan: 14% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 7.2: NM Meepage to Najiha Alvi, Najiha Alvi out. Sri Lanka up from 20% to 31%.
2nd inns 9.5: NM Meepage to Umm-e-Hani, Umm-e-Hani out. Sri Lanka up from 21% to 35%.
2nd inns 12.1: AC Jayangani to Eyman Fatima, Eyman Fatima out. Sri Lanka up from 8% to 19%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka113/6 Pakistan115/6

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

113/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Imesha Dulanistumped · Najiha Alvi · Umm-e-Hani 2 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Najiha Alvi · b Umm-e-Hani	17	17	2	0	100.00
Chamari Atapattucaught · Tasmia Rubab · Momina Riasat 5 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tasmia Rubab · b Momina Riasat	34	33	5	0	103.03
S Kavindicaught · Tuba Hassan · Momina Riasat 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tuba Hassan · b Momina Riasat	20	18	2	0	111.11
Harshitha Madavicaught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · Ayesha Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shawaal Zulfiqar · b Ayesha Zafar	3	5	0	0	60.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Umm-e-Hani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0
Waheeda Akhtar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	18	0	6.00	1
Momina Riasat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	2	4.50	0
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	1	4.25	0
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	6	1	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	6	15/0
3	5	20/0
4	7	27/0
5	8	35/0
6	9	44/1
7	4	48/1
8	7	55/1
9	6	61/1
10	5	66/1
11	6	72/1
12	1	73/3
13	6	79/3
14	7	86/4
15	2	88/5
16	3	91/6
17	4	95/6
18	3	98/6
19	8	106/6
20	7	113/6

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