AustraliaversusNew Zealand

20 Oct 2026 · T20

North Sydney Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 40 runs

Australia20.0 overs167/7 New Zealand20.0 overs127/8 North Sydney Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

92%Australia8%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,849 vs 1,609 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 10 and New Zealand won 0
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 91%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 79% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 21%).

Biggest swings

0.4: BG Illing to G Voll, G Voll out. New Zealand up from 9% to 14%.
3.3: JM Kerr to P Litchfield, P Litchfield out. New Zealand up from 13% to 18%.
6.5: NH Patel to EA Perry, EA Perry out. New Zealand up from 15% to 20%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia167/7 New Zealand127/8

Innings 1

Australia

167/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Beth Mooneycaught · Maddy Green · Jess Kerr 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Maddy Green · b Jess Kerr	39	28	6	0	139.29
Georgia Vollcaught and bowled · Bree Illing 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught and bowled · b Bree Illing	0	3	0	0	0.00
Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Izzy Sharp · Jess Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Izzy Sharp · b Jess Kerr	7	9	0	0	77.78
Ellyse Perrycaught · Jess Kerr · Nensi Patel2 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Bree Illing0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	1
Jess Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	2	8.50	0
Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	0	9.50	2
Nensi Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	37	1	9.25	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/1
2	5	7/1
3	7	14/1
4	3	17/2
5	9	26/2
6	13	39/2
7	3	42/3
8	13	55/3
9	8	63/3
10	10	73/3
11	11	84/3
12	12	96/3
13	5	101/4
14	9	110/4
15	8	118/4
16	7	125/5
17	10	135/5
18	5	140/6
19	21	161/6
20	6	167/7

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