NorthamptonshireversusLancashire

4 Jul 2025 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lancashire won by 5 wickets

Northamptonshire20.0 overs177/10 Lancashire19.3 overs181/5 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 53%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Lancashire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 6% to 63% during the match (Lancashire: 37% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: GLS Scrimshaw to LS Livingstone, six by LS Livingstone. Lancashire up from 54% to 80%.
2nd inns 18.6: GLS Scrimshaw to LS Livingstone, LS Livingstone out. Northamptonshire up from 20% to 43%.
2nd inns 19.2: LA Procter to LWP Wells, six by LWP Wells. Lancashire up from 62% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire177/10 Lancashire181/5

Innings 1