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England Women tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Women
1 Apr 2024 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 30%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · Amy Jones · Charlie Dean6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Charlie Dean | 50 | 74 | 6 | 0 | 67.57 |
 Bernadine Bezuidenhoutlbw · Sophie Ecclestone2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sophie Ecclestone | 35 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 56.45 |
 Amelia Kerrlbw · Kate Cross1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kate Cross | 24 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Georgia Plimmerlbw · Kate Cross 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kate Cross | 17 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 70.83 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (England: 20% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Maddy Greencaught and bowled · Lauren Bell0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Lauren Bell | 7 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 30.43 |
|---|
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Amy Jones · Charlie Dean 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Charlie Dean | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 46.15 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazebowled · Lauren Bell 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Bell | 18 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 78.26 |
|---|
| Hannah Rowecaught · Heather Knight · Nat Sciver-Brunt 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Heather Knight · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 16 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrbowled · Lauren Bell 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Lauren Bell | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhucaught · Danielle Wyatt · Charlie Dean0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Danielle Wyatt · b Charlie Dean | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Fran Jonasnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 22 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kate Cross3 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.39 | 2 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 4.40 | 3 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 3.90 | 2 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 14 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 57 | 3 | 6.33 | 14 | 0 |
1-90 (Suzie Bates, 21.0) · 2-100 (Bernadine Bezuidenhout, 23.2) · 3-139 (Georgia Plimmer, 31.0) · 4-148 (Amelia Kerr, 34.1) · 5-157 (Brooke Halliday, 38.0) · 6-159 (Maddy Green, 39.0) · 7-191 (Hannah Rowe, 45.0) · 8-204 (Izzy Gaze, 47.0) · 9-207 (Lea Tahuhu, 47.4) · 10-207 (Jess Kerr, 48.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 17/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 28/0 |
| 9 | 0 | 28/0 |
| 10 | 2 | 30/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 36/0 |
| 12 | 8 | 44/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 47/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 50/0 |
| 15 | 3 | 53/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 55/0 |
| 17 | 10 | 65/0 |
| 18 | 6 | 71/0 |
| 19 | 6 | 77/0 |
| 20 | 5 | 82/0 |
| 21 | 8 | 90/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 93/1 |
| 23 | 5 | 98/1 |
| 24 | 3 | 101/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 103/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 105/2 |
| 27 | 15 | 120/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 124/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 131/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 135/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 142/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 145/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 148/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 150/4 |
| 36 | 2 | 152/4 |
| 37 | 0 | 152/4 |
| 38 | 5 | 157/5 |
| 39 | 2 | 159/6 |
| 40 | 6 | 165/6 |
| 41 | 5 | 170/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 173/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 182/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 187/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 191/7 |
| 46 | 6 | 197/7 |
| 47 | 7 | 204/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 207/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 207/10 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kate Cross: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bernadine Bezuidenhout: Bernadine Bezuidenhout · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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