**McLean Park, Napier**
Photo: Ovalise
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Central DistrictsversusAuckland

16 Jan 2026 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 10 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs142/7 Auckland20.0 overs132/8 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 48%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Auckland is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 12% to 99% during the match (Auckland: 1% to 88%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.4: BM Tickner to RD Harrison, RD Harrison out. Central Districts up from 29% to 47%.
2nd inns 15.5: AY Patel to S Dixit, S Dixit out. Central Districts up from 49% to 69%.
2nd inns 18.1: JFA Field to H Johal, H Johal out. Central Districts up from 65% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts142/7 Auckland132/8

Innings 1