Cayman IslandsversusArgentina

15 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Cayman Islands won by 22 runs

Cayman Islands20.0 overs116/10 Argentina16.5 overs94/10 Hurlingham Club Ground, Buenos Aires ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

52%Cayman Islands48%Argentina

Why

Argentina are playing at home in Argentina
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Cayman Islands won 1 and Argentina won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Cayman Islands rate stronger than Argentina (1,459 vs 1,444 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cayman Islands started on 50%; Cayman Islands batted first.

Cayman Islands’s chance of winning (%) · Argentina is the rest

Cayman Islands's chances ranged from 36% to 99% during the match (Argentina: 2% to 64%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.5: Ronald Ebanks to A Ferguson, A Ferguson out. Cayman Islands up from 50% to 66%.
2nd inns 9.3: A Morris to T Rossi, T Rossi out. Cayman Islands up from 64% to 84%.
2nd inns 16.1: C Wright to H Fennell, H Fennell out. Cayman Islands up from 84% to 98%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cayman Islands116/10 Argentina94/10

Innings 1

Cayman Islands

116/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cayman Islands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
J Bakercaught · Santiago Iturbe · Hernán Fennell 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Santiago Iturbe · b Hernán Fennell	24	14	2	2	171.43
Sacha De Alwiscaught · Santiago Iturbe · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Santiago Iturbe · b A Kirschbaum	1	2	0	0	50.00
AR Naidoobowled · A Kirschbaum 0 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b A Kirschbaum	19	26	0	2	73.08
S Fostercaught · A Kirschbaum · AAP Rivero 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · A Kirschbaum · b AAP Rivero	41	46	4	0	89.13
Ramon Sealycaught · Alejandro Ferguson · Lucas Rossi 0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
A Kirschbaum0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	2	3.50	0
Hernán Fennell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	5	3.50	1
T Rossi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	45	1	11.25	1
Lucas Rossi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	1	7.25	1
AAP Rivero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	1	3.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	8	11/1
3	17	28/1
4	1	29/2
5	6	35/2
6	2	37/2
7	1	38/2
8	4	42/2
9	8	50/2
10	14	64/2
11	2	66/3
12	5	71/3
13	2	73/3
14	6	79/4
15	3	82/4
16	7	89/5
17	6	95/5
18	15	110/5
19	3	113/6
20	3	116/10

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