ScotlandversusAustralia

15 Jun 2024 · T20

Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 5 wickets

Scotland20.0 overs180/5 Australia19.4 overs186/5 Daren Sammy National Cricket Stadium, Gros Islet ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

33%Scotland67%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Scotland (1,722 vs 1,603 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Scotland started on 30%; Scotland batted first.

Scotland’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Scotland's chances ranged from 3% to 80% during the match (Australia: 20% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.1: SM Sharif to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. Scotland up from 54% to 67%.
2nd inns 8.2: MRJ Watt to GJ Maxwell, GJ Maxwell out. Scotland up from 60% to 73%.
2nd inns 15.6: SM Sharif to MP Stoinis, four by MP Stoinis. Australia up from 70% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Scotland180/5 Australia186/5

Innings 1

Scotland

180/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Scotland batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
George Munseycaught · Nathan Ellis · Glenn Maxwell 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Nathan Ellis · b Glenn Maxwell	35	23	2	3	152.17
Michael Jonesbowled · Ashton Agar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Ashton Agar	2	3	0	0	66.67
Brandon McMullencaught · Mitchell Starc · Adam Zampa 2 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Mitchell Starc · b Adam Zampa	60	34	2	6	176.47
Richie Berringtonnot out 1 fours · 2 sixes	not out	42*	31	1	2	135.48
Matty Crosscaught · Ashton Agar · Glenn Maxwell 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Ashton Agar · b Glenn Maxwell

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Ashton Agar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	1
Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	0	7.75	1
Nathan Ellis0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	1	8.50	4
Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	44	2	11.00	1
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	2	5/1
3	10	15/1
4	10	25/1
5	18	43/1
6	11	54/1
7	13	67/1
8	16	83/1
9	9	92/2
10	4	96/2
11	15	111/2
12	1	112/3
13	9	121/3
14	14	135/3
15	3	138/4
16	11	149/4
17	4	153/5
18	12	165/5
19	6	171/5
20	9	180/5

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