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Asian Cricket Council Women's Premier Cup · 2023/24 · Women
11 Feb 2024 · T20
Royal Selangor Club, Kuala Lumpur · Venue photographRecorded result
China more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
China started on 65%; China batted first.
China's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (Japan: 30% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Meng Yaocaught · A Kano · E Toguchi-Quinn 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Kano · b E Toguchi-Quinn | 15 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 57.69 |
| Zi Meilbw · Nonoha Yasumoto 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nonoha Yasumoto | 5 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 35.71 |
| Han Lilicaught · H Iwasaki · A Chandel 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Iwasaki · b A Chandel | 29 | 41 | 3 | 0 | 70.73 |
| Huang Zhuocaught and bowled · Kurumi Ota 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kurumi Ota | 6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 35.29 |
| M Zhurun out · A Chandel · Kurumi Ota 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Chandel | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Zheng Lilibowled · A Fujikawa0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b A Fujikawa |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Wenjing Yincaught · S Kato · Kurumi Ota 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Kato · b Kurumi Ota | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Zhi Xinyunot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Mengting Liubowled · A Chandel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Chandel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Xu Qianbowled · A Chandel 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Chandel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Yang Yu Xuanlbw · A Chandel 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b A Chandel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Chandel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 2.82 | 0 | 0 |
| Nonoha Yasumoto0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 3.00 | 4 | 0 |
| E Toguchi-Quinn0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1.75 | 0 | 0 |
| S Kato0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 11.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Kurumi Ota0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.75 | 2 | 0 |
| A Fujikawa0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-15 (Zi Mei, 5.1) · 2-32 (Sun Meng Yao, 8.4) · 3-59 (Huang Zhuo, 13.4) · 4-63 (M Zhu, 15.2) · 5-65 (Zheng Lili, 16.4) · 6-67 (Wenjing Yin, 17.3) · 7-75 (Han Lili, 19.2) · 8-75 (Mengting Liu, 19.3) · 9-75 (Xu Qian, 19.4) · 10-75 (Yang Yu Xuan, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 15/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 1 | 32/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 45/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 47/2 |
| 12 | 7 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 57/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 60/3 |
| 15 | 3 | 63/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 64/4 |
| 17 | 3 | 67/5 |
| 18 | 4 | 71/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 75/6 |
| 20 | 0 | 75/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.