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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2026 · Women
12 Jun 2026 · T20
Brazil more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Brazil started on 82%; Brazil batted first.
Brazil's chances ranged from 72% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 29%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV Boasbowled · V Phiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b V Phiri | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| L Agathabowled · Lucy Wesley 6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Lucy Wesley | 52 | 43 | 6 | 2 | 120.93 |
| MLG Silvalbw · Sugeni Kananji 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sugeni Kananji | 12 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Laura Cardosolbw · L Malino 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b L Malino | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Roberta Moretti Averylbw · LL Dimba1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b LL Dimba | 16 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| caught · S Chinawa · b Praise Maziya |
| 14 |
| 10 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 140.00 |
| AC Sabinolbw · Praise Maziya 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Praise Maziya | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| M Arturbowled · LL Dimba 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b LL Dimba | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| NC Monteironot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| L Moisesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 8 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugeni Kananji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| V Phiri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 |
| L Malino0 maidens · 1 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 1 | 2 |
| Praise Maziya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Lucy Wesley0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 3 | 1 |
| LL Dimba0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 3.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-1 (LV Boas, 1.2) · 2-17 (MLG Silva, 5.0) · 3-36 (Laura Cardoso, 7.1) · 4-85 (L Agatha, 12.4) · 5-108 (Roberta Moretti Avery, 15.2) · 6-111 (AC Sabino, 16.2) · 7-113 (MR Machado, 16.5) · 8-122 (M Artur, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 9 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 29/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 36/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 40/3 |
| 9 | 8 | 48/3 |
| 10 | 10 | 58/3 |
| 11 | 13 | 71/3 |
| 12 | 7 | 78/3 |
| 13 | 10 | 88/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 98/4 |
| 15 | 10 | 108/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 17 | 3 | 113/7 |
| 18 | 3 | 116/7 |
| 19 | 3 | 119/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 124/8 |
Roberta Moretti Avery: WellingtonDaniel198 · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
