Saudi ArabiaversusUnited Arab Emirates

19 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 11 runs

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs182/8 United Arab Emirates20.0 overs171/5 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

United Arab Emirates more likely to win

12%Saudi Arabia88%United Arab Emirates

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, United Arab Emirates rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,729 vs 1,506 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, United Arab Emirates won 3 and Saudi Arabia won 0
United Arab Emirates are playing at home in the United Arab Emirates

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 11%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · United Arab Emirates is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 11% to 98% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 2% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.6: Usman Najeeb to R Chopra, six by R Chopra. United Arab Emirates up from 65% to 79%.
2nd inns 18.3: Usman Najeeb to Asif Khan, Asif Khan out. Saudi Arabia up from 50% to 70%.
2nd inns 18.4: Usman Najeeb to Syed Haider, Syed Haider out. Saudi Arabia up from 70% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia182/8 United Arab Emirates171/5

Innings 1

Saudi Arabia

182/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Usman Khalidcaught · Nilansh Keswani · Ali Naseer 4 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Nilansh Keswani · b Ali Naseer	57	40	4	3	142.50
Faisal Khanbowled · SS Kang 2 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b SS Kang	26	15	2	2	173.33
Abdul Waheedcaught · Nilansh Keswani · Ali Naseer 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nilansh Keswani · b Ali Naseer	3	7	0	0	42.86
Manan Alicaught · Waseem Muhammad · SS Kang 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Waseem Muhammad · b SS Kang	16	11	1	1	145.45
Choudhry Md Imranlbw · D Parashar 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b D Parashar	2	2	0	0	100.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Junaid Siddique0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	2	12.25	4
D Parashar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Muhammad Jawadullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	45	0	15.00	1
SS Kang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	20	2	6.67	0
Nilansh Keswani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	15	0	7.50	0
Ali Naseer0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	3	7.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	8	8/0
2	6	14/0
3	19	33/0
4	7	40/0
5	19	59/0
6	2	61/1
7	3	64/1
8	3	67/2
9	5	72/2
10	10	82/2
11	14	96/3
12	2	98/4
13	10	108/4
14	5	113/4
15	12	125/4
16	10	135/5
17	9	144/6
18	17	161/6
19	8	169/7
20	13	182/8

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