North America Cup · 2026 · Men

BahamasversusBermuda

26 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 8 wickets

Bahamas18.5 overs82/10 Bermuda6.1 overs83/2 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

12%Bahamas88%Bermuda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Bahamas (1,560 vs 1,346 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 8 and Bahamas won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahamas started on 11%; Bahamas batted first.

Bahamas’s chance of winning (%) · Bermuda is the rest

Bahamas's chances ranged from 0% to 14% during the match (Bermuda: 86% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.3: KS Leverock to M Taylor, six by M Taylor. Bahamas up from 11% to 14%.
1.6: D Sabir to GT Taylor, GT Taylor out. Bermuda up from 89% to 91%.
18.5: D Sabir to Mohamed Sarfudeen, Mohamed Sarfudeen out. Bermuda up from 97% to 99%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahamas82/10 Bermuda83/2

Innings 1

Bahamas

82/1018.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahamas batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	6s	SR
Marc Taylorcaught · Terryn Fray · Delray Rawlins 0 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Terryn Fray · b Delray Rawlins	62	59	6	105.08
Gregory Taylorcaught · Delray Rawlins · D Sabir 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b D Sabir	0	6	0	0.00
Festus Benncaught · Terryn Fray · Kwasi James 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Terryn Fray · b Kwasi James	8	20	0	40.00
T Browncaught · Delray Rawlins · Derrick Brangman 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b Derrick Brangman	4	7	0	57.14
K Burrowscaught · Sinclair Smith · Kwasi James 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinclair Smith · b Kwasi James	0	1	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kamau Leverock0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	12	1	4.00	2
D Sabir1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	1	14	3	3.65	0
Delray Rawlins0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	1	3.50	0
Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	16	1	4.00	0
Kwasi James0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	4	6.50	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/0
2	0	7/1
3	1	8/1
4	2	10/1
5	4	14/1
6	2	16/1
7	2	18/1
8	4	22/1
9	4	26/1
10	5	31/2
11	3	34/3
12	4	38/6
13	7	45/6
14	13	58/6
15	11	69/6
16	7	76/6
17	3	79/7
18	2	81/8
19	1	82/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.