RwandaversusMalawi

23 Jul 2025 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Malawi won by 6 wickets

Rwanda19.4 overs111/10 Malawi17.0 overs115/4 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

75%Rwanda25%Malawi

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Malawi (1,419 vs 1,317 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 5 and Malawi won 2
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 73%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 0% to 79% during the match (Malawi: 21% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: C Tchale to D Ndikubwimana, D Ndikubwimana out. Malawi up from 31% to 41%.
5.1: SZ Vayani to A Mucyodusenge, A Mucyodusenge out. Malawi up from 37% to 46%.
2nd inns 0.4: Z Bimenyimana to A Limdawala, A Limdawala out. Rwanda up from 32% to 43%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda111/10 Malawi115/4

Innings 1

Rwanda

111/1019.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Rwanda batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
O Manishimwebowled · K Thuchila 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b K Thuchila	14	13	3	0	107.69
D Ndikubwimanalbw · C Tchale 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b C Tchale	0	2	0	0	0.00
A Mucyodusengebowled · SZ Vayani 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b SZ Vayani	0	8	0	0	0.00
D Gumyusengebowled · M Choamba 4 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b M Choamba	43	32	4	3	134.38
Yves Cyusarun out · Sami Sohail · Sami Sohail 2 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Sami Sohail	17	26	2	0	65.38
M Akayezucaught · A Limdawala · SZ Vayani1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
K Thuchila1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	1	3.25	1
C Tchale0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	16	1	8.00	2
SZ Vayani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	29	2	7.25	0
A Limdawala0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	0
M Choamba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	0
Sami Sohail0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	0	19	2	5.18	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/0
2	15	16/0
3	0	16/1
4	1	17/2
5	11	28/2
6	9	37/3
7	1	38/3
8	2	40/3
9	7	47/3
10	13	60/3
11	2	62/3
12	5	67/3
13	6	73/4
14	5	78/5
15	9	87/5
16	8	95/5
17	5	100/6
18	4	104/7
19	7	111/8
20	0	111/10

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.