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ICC Women's World Cup Qualifier · 2025 · Women
15 Apr 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 40%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ishma Tanjimcaught · Abtaha Maqsood · Priyanaz Chatterji 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abtaha Maqsood · b Priyanaz Chatterji | 14 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 48.28 |
 Fargana Hoquecaught · Priyanaz Chatterji · Chloe Abel6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Priyanaz Chatterji · b Chloe Abel | 57 | 84 | 6 | 0 | 67.86 |
 Sharmin Akhtercaught · Sarah Bryce · Kathryn Bryce7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sarah Bryce · b Kathryn Bryce | 57 | 79 | 7 | 0 | 72.15 |
 Nigar Sultananot out11 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 83* |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 59 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 140.68 |
| Sobhana Mostarylbw · Rachel Slater 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rachel Slater | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Ritu Monicaught and bowled · Katherine Fraser 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 12 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 92.31 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatuncaught · Priyanaz Chatterji · Kathryn Bryce2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Priyanaz Chatterji · b Kathryn Bryce | 26 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 118.18 |
|---|
 Nahida Akternot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachel Slater1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 5.50 | 4 | 0 |
| Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.89 | 4 | 0 |
| Chloe Abel0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 37 | 1 | 4.63 | 3 | 0 |
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 5.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 0 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Megan McColl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-35 (Ishma Tanjim, 8.3) · 2-138 (Sharmin Akhter, 29.4) · 3-157 (Fargana Hoque, 34.5) · 4-176 (Sobhana Mostary, 37.5) · 5-213 (Ritu Moni, 42.3) · 6-274 (Fahima Khatun, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 7 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 25/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 33/0 |
| 9 | 3 | 36/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 43/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 57/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 63/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 68/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 69/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 72/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 79/1 |
| 21 | 2 | 81/1 |
| 22 | 5 | 86/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 90/1 |
| 24 | 7 | 97/1 |
| 25 | 11 | 108/1 |
| 26 | 10 | 118/1 |
| 27 | 5 | 123/1 |
| 28 | 8 | 131/1 |
| 29 | 2 | 133/1 |
| 30 | 5 | 138/2 |
| 31 | 4 | 142/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 146/2 |
| 33 | 1 | 147/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 153/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 158/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 165/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 170/3 |
| 38 | 10 | 180/4 |
| 39 | 3 | 183/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 192/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 198/4 |
| 42 | 10 | 208/4 |
| 43 | 8 | 216/5 |
| 44 | 5 | 221/5 |
| 45 | 12 | 233/5 |
| 46 | 5 | 238/5 |
| 47 | 5 | 243/5 |
| 48 | 9 | 252/5 |
| 49 | 13 | 265/5 |
| 50 | 11 | 276/6 |
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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