LesothoversusBotswana

10 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Botswana won by 6 wickets

Lesotho20.0 overs81/8 Botswana12.3 overs83/4 Botswana Cricket Association Oval 1, Gaborone ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Botswana more likely to win

24%Lesotho76%Botswana

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Botswana rate stronger than Lesotho (1,403 vs 1,321 on our results rating)
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Botswana won 3 and Lesotho won 0
Botswana are playing at home in Botswana

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lesotho started on 22%; Lesotho batted first.

Lesotho’s chance of winning (%) · Botswana is the rest

Lesotho's chances ranged from 0% to 25% during the match (Botswana: 75% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.5: M Mooketsi to Mohammed Jamadar, Mohammed Jamadar out. Botswana up from 79% to 84%.
4.6: B Khumalo to ME Leoela, ME Leoela out. Botswana up from 84% to 88%.
6.1: B Khumalo to Abraar Khan, Abraar Khan out. Botswana up from 89% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lesotho81/8 Botswana83/4

Innings 1

Lesotho

81/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Lesotho batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mohammed Jamadarcaught · L Maphane · Mmoloki Mooketsi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · L Maphane · b Mmoloki Mooketsi	9	14	2	0	64.29
LM Gabrielcaught · P Silas · B van Zyl 3 fours · 2 sixes	caught · P Silas · b B van Zyl	39	49	3	2	79.59
ME Leoelabowled · B Khumalo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b B Khumalo	0	3	0	0	0.00
Abraar Khanbowled · B Khumalo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b B Khumalo	0	1	0	0	0.00
Waseem Yaqoobcaught · Mmoloki Mooketsi · Thatayaone Tshose 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mmoloki Mooketsi · b Thatayaone Tshose	18	25	3	0	72.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
B van Zyl1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	14	1	3.50	3
Mmoloki Mooketsi1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	1	3.25	0
B Khumalo0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	14	3	3.50	0
B Keganne1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	19	1	4.75	0
Thatayaone Tshose0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	17	1	8.50	0
Vinoo Balakrishnan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	3	0	1.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/0
3	0	8/0
4	4	12/1
5	3	15/2
6	0	15/2
7	3	18/3
8	5	23/3
9	4	27/3
10	8	35/3
11	9	44/3
12	7	51/3
13	9	60/4
14	0	60/5
15	2	62/5
16	4	66/5
17	8	74/5
18	1	75/5
19	2	77/6
20	4	81/8

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