Birmingham BearsversusNottinghamshire

30 May 2025 · T20

Trent Bridge · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nottinghamshire won by 7 wickets

Birmingham Bears20.0 overs226/5 Nottinghamshire19.1 overs229/3 Trent Bridge ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Birmingham Bears started on 56%; Birmingham Bears batted first.

Birmingham Bears’s chance of winning (%) · Nottinghamshire is the rest

Birmingham Bears's chances ranged from 1% to 92% during the match (Nottinghamshire: 8% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.2: DR Briggs to JM Clarke, JM Clarke out. Birmingham Bears up from 54% to 67%.
2nd inns 15.3: AR Sylvester to MC Henriques, six by MC Henriques. Nottinghamshire up from 49% to 62%.
2nd inns 18.1: EG Barnard to JA Haynes, six by JA Haynes. Nottinghamshire up from 80% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Birmingham Bears226/5 Nottinghamshire229/3

Innings 1