**McLean Park, Napier**
Photo: Ovalise
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2023/24 · Men

Central DistrictsversusOtago

10 Jan 2024 · T20

McLean Park, Napier · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 52 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs187/5 Otago18.0 overs135/10 McLean Park, Napier ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 50%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Otago is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (Otago: 0% to 58%).

Biggest swings

1.1: ATE Hazeldine to BL Wiggins, BL Wiggins out. Otago up from 46% to 58%.
2nd inns 2.1: BJ Small to JM Gibson, JM Gibson out. Central Districts up from 62% to 72%.
2nd inns 5.3: DAJ Bracewell to HD Rutherford, HD Rutherford out. Central Districts up from 75% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts187/5 Otago135/10

Innings 1