BulgariaversusEstonia

15 May 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Estonia won by 8 wickets

Bulgaria19.1 overs87/10 Estonia11.0 overs88/2 Estonian National Cricket and Rugby Field, Tallinn ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

49%Bulgaria51%Estonia

Why

Estonia are playing at home in Estonia
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bulgaria rate stronger than Estonia (1,226 vs 1,195 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bulgaria started on 48%; Bulgaria batted first.

Bulgaria’s chance of winning (%) · Estonia is the rest

Bulgaria's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Estonia: 51% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.1: A Vessik to V Nikolova, V Nikolova out. Estonia up from 51% to 62%.
1.5: M Valner to S Yordanova, S Yordanova out. Estonia up from 67% to 80%.
3.1: M Valner to S Sarandeva, S Sarandeva out. Estonia up from 73% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bulgaria87/10 Estonia88/2

Innings 1

Bulgaria

87/1019.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bulgaria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
V Nikolovabowled · A Vessik 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b A Vessik	0	1	0	0	0.00
Stanislava Sarandevacaught · C Lokuge · M Valner 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · C Lokuge · b M Valner	2	6	0	0	33.33
D Ruynekovabowled · A Vessik 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b A Vessik	0	2	0	0	0.00
Simona Yordanovabowled · M Valner 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Valner	2	6	0	0	33.33
S Galabovacaught · L Sormus · M Valner 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · L Sormus · b M Valner	25	58	2	0	43.10
B Shotorovabowled · M Valner0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
A Vessik0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	7	3	2.21	4	0
M Valner0 maidens · 8 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	14	4	3.50	8	1
Viktoria Frey0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	14	3	3.50	8	0
C Lokuge0 maidens · 4 wides · 8 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	4	8
Ragne Hallik0 maidens · 7 wides · 2 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	7	2
G Madanayake0 maidens · 4 wides · 3 no-balls	3.0	13	0	4.33	4	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/2
2	4	5/3
3	5	10/3
4	4	14/5
5	3	17/5
6	12	29/5
7	3	32/6
8	2	34/6
9	6	40/6
10	7	47/6
11	2	49/6
12	10	59/6
13	6	65/6
14	8	73/6
15	2	75/8
16	5	80/8
17	3	83/9
18	1	84/9
19	3	87/9
20	0	87/10

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