Cayman IslandsversusBermuda

18 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Bermuda won by 7 wickets

Cayman Islands20.0 overs121/9 Bermuda12.5 overs126/3 Maple Leaf North-West Ground, King City ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bermuda more likely to win

15%Cayman Islands85%Bermuda

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bermuda rate stronger than Cayman Islands (1,565 vs 1,394 on our results rating)
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Bermuda won 8 and Cayman Islands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Cayman Islands started on 14%; Cayman Islands batted first.

Cayman Islands’s chance of winning (%) · Bermuda is the rest

Cayman Islands's chances ranged from 0% to 15% during the match (Bermuda: 85% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Z Burgess to AR Naidoo, AR Naidoo out. Bermuda up from 86% to 91%.
1.4: Chare Smith to S Foster, S Foster out. Bermuda up from 93% to 97%.
9.4: Jonte Smith to J Baker, ROC Dunka out. Bermuda up from 87% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Cayman Islands121/9 Bermuda126/3

Innings 1

Cayman Islands

121/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Cayman Islands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
J Bakercaught · MJ Scotland · Jonte Smith 6 fours · 3 sixes	caught · MJ Scotland · b Jonte Smith	51	42	6	3	121.43
AR Naidoocaught · Sinclair Smith · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinclair Smith · b Zeko Burgess	2	3	0	0	66.67
Ramon Sealycaught · Sinclair Smith · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sinclair Smith · b Zeko Burgess	0	1	0	0	0.00
S Fostercaught · Delray Rawlins · Chare Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Delray Rawlins · b Chare Smith	0	3	0	0	0.00
ROC Dunkarun out · Jonte Smith, Zeko Burgess · Jonte Smith 0 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Chare Smith0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	4
Delray Rawlins0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	1
Kevon Fubler0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	0	5.50	0
Jonte Smith0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	3	4.75	5

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/2
2	6	9/3
3	4	13/3
4	9	22/3
5	8	30/3
6	1	31/3
7	9	40/3
8	12	52/3
9	10	62/3
10	11	73/4
11	5	78/4
12	4	82/5
13	7	89/5
14	3	92/7
15	10	102/7
16	1	103/7
17	9	112/7
18	2	114/7
19	2	116/8
20	5	121/9

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.