Adelaide StrikersversusBrisbane Heat

22 Dec 2024 · T20

Brisbane Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Brisbane Heat won by 3 wickets

Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs174/6 Brisbane Heat20.0 overs175/7 Brisbane Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Adelaide Strikers started on 39%; Adelaide Strikers batted first.

Adelaide Strikers’s chance of winning (%) · Brisbane Heat is the rest

Adelaide Strikers's chances ranged from 2% to 73% during the match (Brisbane Heat: 27% to 98%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 11.2: L Pope to M Bryant, M Bryant out. Adelaide Strikers up from 43% to 59%.
2nd inns 15.6: HTRY Thornton to NA McSweeney, four by NA McSweeney. Brisbane Heat up from 55% to 71%.
2nd inns 19.6: L Scott to MJ Swepson, 1 run to MJ Swepson. Brisbane Heat up from 82% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Adelaide Strikers174/6 Brisbane Heat175/7

Innings 1