RomaniaversusBulgaria

10 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Romania won by 30 runs

Romania20.0 overs154/9 Bulgaria20.0 overs124/9 Moara Vlasiei Cricket Ground, Ilfov County ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Romania more likely to win

88%Romania12%Bulgaria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Romania rate stronger than Bulgaria (1,538 vs 1,345 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Romania won 9 and Bulgaria won 1
Romania are playing at home in Romania

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Romania started on 88%; Romania batted first.

Romania’s chance of winning (%) · Bulgaria is the rest

Romania's chances ranged from 61% to 100% during the match (Bulgaria: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.4: Dilum Fernando to M Gogev, M Gogev out. Romania up from 64% to 76%.
2nd inns 9.2: T Sandaruwan to Manan Bashir, Manan Bashir out. Romania up from 73% to 85%.
2nd inns 11.5: V Saini to H Lakov, H Lakov out. Romania up from 75% to 89%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Romania154/9 Bulgaria124/9

Innings 1

Romania

154/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Romania batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Irfan Ringkucaught · H Lakov · J Dowling 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Lakov · b J Dowling	6	5	1	0	120.00
V Sainirun out · M Gogev · Gagandeep Singh (3) 7 fours · 1 sixes	run out · M Gogev	72	51	7	1	141.18
Chamalka Fernandocaught · H Lakov · M Gogev 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · H Lakov · b M Gogev	0	2	0	0	0.00
Parveen Kumar (3)caught · A Dowling · P Mishra 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · A Dowling · b P Mishra	18	19	0	1	94.74
S Vashishtcaught · O Duff · P Mishra 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · O Duff · b P Mishra	4	7	0	0	57.14

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Gogev0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	0	0
J Dowling0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	1	9.33	5	0
P Mishra0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	1	0
Jakob Gul0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	1	4.75	1	0
Gagandeep Singh (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	33	1	11.00	0	0
A Dowling0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	13	0	13.00	1	0
H Lakov0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	11	2	5.50	0	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	10	10/0
2	5	15/1
3	2	17/2
4	8	25/2
5	11	36/2
6	15	51/2
7	9	60/2
8	3	63/2
9	4	67/3
10	5	72/3
11	7	79/4
12	7	86/4
13	5	91/4
14	4	95/5
15	7	102/6
16	13	115/6
17	14	129/7
18	6	135/9
19	14	149/9
20	5	154/9

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