West IndiesversusSri Lanka

1 Mar 2026 · T20

National Cricket Stadium, St George's, Grenada · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 4 wickets

West Indies20.0 overs101/10 Sri Lanka18.1 overs102/6 National Cricket Stadium, St George's, Grenada ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

West Indies more likely to win

79%West Indies21%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, West Indies rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,573 vs 1,469 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, West Indies won 8 and Sri Lanka won 2
West Indies are playing at home in Grenada

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 76%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 81% during the match (Sri Lanka: 19% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.1: Q Joseph to NND de Silva, NND de Silva out. West Indies up from 11% to 20%.
2nd inns 15.6: JKC Claxton to WK Dilhari, 1 run to WK Dilhari. Sri Lanka up from 84% to 92%.
2nd inns 17.1: HK Matthews to WK Dilhari, four by WK Dilhari. Sri Lanka up from 92% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies101/10 Sri Lanka102/6

Innings 1

West Indies

101/1020.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Qiana Josephbowled · Chamari Atapattu 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Chamari Atapattu	5	7	1	0	71.43
Hayley Matthewscaught · Imesha Dulani · Chamari Atapattu 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imesha Dulani · b Chamari Atapattu	28	36	2	0	77.78
Jahzara Claxtoncaught · Vishmi Gunaratne · Malki Madara 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Vishmi Gunaratne · b Malki Madara	4	8	0	0	50.00
Stafanie Taylorcaught · Imesha Dulani · Nilakshi de Silva 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imesha Dulani · b Nilakshi de Silva	14	24	0	0	58.33

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Malki Madara0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	3	4.00	2
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	13	2	6.50	0
Sugandika Kumari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	19	0	6.33	0
Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	0	3.75	0
Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	1	5.33	1
Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	9	12/1
3	5	17/1
4	3	20/1
5	2	22/1
6	3	25/2
7	6	31/2
8	9	40/2
9	2	42/2
10	3	45/2
11	4	49/3
12	2	51/3
13	12	63/3
14	4	67/4
15	8	75/5
16	3	78/5
17	3	81/7
18	7	88/8
19	7	95/8
20	6	101/10

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