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Rwanda Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2025 · Men
18 Jul 2025 · T20
Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Bahrain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Rwanda started on 27%; Rwanda batted first.
Rwanda's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Bahrain: 69% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Manishimwelbw · Ali Dawood 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ali Dawood | 10 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 90.91 |
| D Ndikubwimanacaught and bowled · Asif Ali 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught and bowled · b Asif Ali | 42 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 110.53 |
| I Niyomugabobowled · Asif Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asif Ali | 13 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 37.14 |
| D Gumyusengerun out · Rizwan Butt · Asif Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Rizwan Butt | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| M Akayezubowled · Ali Dawood 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ali Dawood | 15 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 166.67 |
| Yves Cyusabowled · Rizwan Butt0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Rizwan Butt |
| 1 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| C Rububagumyalbw · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Rizwan Butt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| E Rukirizabowled · Ali Dawood 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ali Dawood | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Muhammad Nadircaught · Abdul Majeed · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abdul Majeed · b Rizwan Butt | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Z Bimenyimanacaught · Sohail Ahmed · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sohail Ahmed · b Rizwan Butt | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| I Ntirenganyanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Dawood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Imran Anwar0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 7.33 | 1 | 1 |
| Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.4 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 3.27 | 0 | 1 |
| Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Asif Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (O Manishimwe, 2.1) · 2-56 (I Niyomugabo, 11.3) · 3-76 (D Ndikubwimana, 15.3) · 4-81 (D Gumyusenge, 16.1) · 5-89 (Yves Cyusa, 17.4) · 6-89 (C Rububagumya, 17.5) · 7-90 (E Rukiriza, 18.2) · 8-98 (M Akayezu, 19.0) · 9-101 (Z Bimenyimana, 19.3) · 10-102 (Muhammad Nadir, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 38/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 42/1 |
| 10 | 7 | 49/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 52/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 3 | 62/2 |
| 15 | 13 | 75/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 81/4 |
| 17 | 8 | 89/4 |
| 18 | 1 | 90/6 |
| 19 | 9 | 99/8 |
| 20 | 3 | 102/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.