Hong KongversusSouth Korea

12 Oct 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Hong Kong won by 70 runs

Hong Kong20.0 overs146/2 South Korea20.0 overs76/7 Yeonhui Cricket Ground, Incheon ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

73%Hong Kong27%South Korea

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than South Korea (1,476 vs 1,311 on our results rating)
South Korea are playing at home in South Korea
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 1 and South Korea won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 73%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · South Korea is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (South Korea: 0% to 27%).

Biggest swings

19.6: Seri Chang to M Hill, 1 run to M Hill. South Korea up from 13% to 15%.
2nd inns 0.2: M Wai Siu to Seri Chang, Seri Chang out. Hong Kong up from 85% to 90%.
2nd inns 2.3: M Wai Siu to Kim Rang, Kim Rang out. Hong Kong up from 90% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong146/2 South Korea76/7

Innings 1

Hong Kong

146/220.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Natasha Mileslbw · Kim Rang 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Kim Rang	31	38	3	0	81.58
Mariko Hillnot out 2 fours · 2 sixes	not out	60*	54	2	2	111.11
Shanzeen Shahzadstumped · Sinae Kim · Jeon Myeong 3 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Sinae Kim · b Jeon Myeong	26	26	3	0	100.00
Y Daswaninot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	5*	6	0	0	83.33
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 18 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0

Bowling
Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	6	10/0
3	7	17/0
4	4	21/0
5	12	33/0
6	11	44/0
7	6	50/0
8	11	61/0
9	6	67/0
10	6	73/1
11	6	79/1
12	14	93/1
13	4	97/1
14	6	103/1
15	6	109/1
16	10	119/1
17	7	126/1
18	8	134/2
19	4	138/2
20	8	146/2

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