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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2026 · Men
15 Sept 2026 · T20
The Rose Bowl, Southampton · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 95%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 95% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 5%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jos Buttlercaught · Dunith Wellalage · Wanindu Hasaranga8 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Dunith Wellalage · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 80 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 181.82 |
 Aneurin Donaldcaught · Dasun Shanaka · Dunith Wellalage1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Dunith Wellalage | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 240.00 |
 Harry Brooknot out10 fours · 6 sixes | not out | 114* | 49 | 10 | 6 | 232.65 |
| Tom Bantoncaught · Dasun Shanaka · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dasun Shanaka · b Dushmantha Chameera | 10 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Will Jackscaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Eshan Malinga0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Eshan Malinga | 21 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 13.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 13.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 51 | 1 | 17.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 10.25 | 5 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 14.00 | 4 | 0 |
1-31 (Aneurin Donald, 2.1) · 2-159 (Jos Buttler, 12.1) · 3-195 (Tom Banton, 15.3) · 4-254 (Will Jacks, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 15/0 |
| 2 | 16 | 31/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 36/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 42/1 |
| 5 | 30 | 72/1 |
| 6 | 18 | 90/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 100/1 |
| 8 | 13 | 113/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 120/1 |
| 10 | 14 | 134/1 |
| 11 | 11 | 145/1 |
| 12 | 14 | 159/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 165/2 |
| 14 | 16 | 181/2 |
| 15 | 10 | 191/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 197/3 |
| 17 | 19 | 216/3 |
| 18 | 14 | 230/3 |
| 19 | 17 | 247/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 254/4 |
Aneurin Donald: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
